Continued from page three .
If the Marlins were really to exit South Florida, Indianpolis would probably be the best bet, on the population numbers, and its regional draw as a sports magnet.
| MLN Rankings of the Top Potential Major League Markets |
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South Florida North
For the Marlins to ankle from one of the most affluent and populous markets in the country would be a serious black eye for MLB. The communities are some of the wealthiest in the world. If Major League Baseball cannot make a go of it in South Florida, it would cast a long shadow over their operations, and the future of baseball to be a top-drawing sport. Other cities hover around the danger point in attendance numbers, and it could signal the beginning of a difficult trend. Where would the Brewers or other low-population teams move if the market did not support their demands and the Marlins were allowed the privilege?
From Coral Springs to Weston to Jupiter, a vast growing belt of high dollar homes, running from the upper six figures to the millions, is cropping up. Dolphin Stadium is fine for a handful of football games, but still a long enough drive for most of these potential fans to prevent them from becoming season ticket holders over a much longer season.
The Florida Panthers’ home, the Bank Atlantic Center (Formerly Office Depot Center), is situated well to draw fans from both Miami and the Northern counties. A similar kind of location would improve the Marlins chances of drawing bigger dollars in their current market. |
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The Indianapolis Isoritas
Indianapolis is a major league town in every other sport (See Indy Oasis - MLN Travel). The ballpark, Victory Field, right at the foot of the downtown district is a great location, but a new stadium would need to be built. Indy is known for its fabulous sports facilities and is a destination draw throughout the Midwest for sports. Indiana is a long way from most other major league franchises with more than 6 million people in the potential television sphere of the state, regional drawing power and more than 863,596 residents in Marion County. Other major league clubs would have few objections to the Marlins moving there. The only minor league club that would be affected would be the Indianapolis Indians.
The Indians drew 576,000 in their 2004 season, excellent numbers in a town of their population, but probably more indicative of the fact that the AAA International League club had been affiliated with the Brewers, which have one of the less exciting farm systems. The Indians are now affiliated with the Pirates, meaning very little major league club loyalty from the minor league team exists in the market.
This would be the best choice should the Marlins elect to move out of Florida. |
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The Sactown Salmons
The top-ranked market for attendance outside of the majors is Sacramento, California. Home of the Sacramento RiverCats, the Oakland A’s AAA affiliate, the town turned out 751,156 paid attendance in a town with just 445,335 residents and 1.4 million in the county!
Sacramento is growth-minded, and with population rising at about a 1% a year, the city fathers and local business would probably embrace a major league club.
There would be the obvious objections from the Oakland A’s, who are roughly 90 minutes from Sacramento. The area has been a long time stronghold of the Athletics. There are plenty of places to build a stadium, including the old railyard on the Sacramento side and the recovering waterfront of West Sacramento.
Still, with the Kings threatening to go without a new stadium, and little support for the Maloofs on that score, a ballpark in the range of $500 to $700 million would be a tall political order.
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The Memphis Marlins
Memphis had paid attendance of 730,565 in 2004, and has been one of the top two markets in the minors. AutoZone park, located downtown, seats enough to house a major league club temporarily, and, with a gut and remodel, could be an indoor major league park, although sources tell us that parking might be tricky.
The iffy parts would be that the community owns the Memphis Redbirds. The city has been burned numerous times by major league sports. Just as the locals own the Green Bay Packers, the locals control the fate of the franchise. It would not be impossible for Mr. Loria to work his way into town, but it would be an uphill climb.
What is Memphis saying? See the wmctv.com report and video. |
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The Charleston Carp
Charleston South Carolina has 4.2 million in population, certainly large enough to support a major league team. The RiverDogs, a Class-A South Atlantic League team there, only drew 255,793 in 2004. Usually for a market to go major, some promotion to the higher levels of minor league ball gives a better read on the enthusiasm level for the sport in the community. It’s not an impossibility to see such a leap, but given Round Rock (Austin) was drawing 689,000 as a AA facility with a far smaller population, Charleston would not seem to be a major contender. |
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Just Fishing
Other markets like Norfolk, Virginia have been floated previously. We don't take these seriously, particularly in light of the Nationals arrival in DC. Teams need large drawing power over a wide distance. Washington holds the Virginia market now. |
Look, Don’t Pack
Commissioner Selig gave the Marlins permission to investigate a move, but maple leafs to palm trees comparisons aside, the situation in Florida is not as easy as Mr. Loria's exit from the Montreal market. Florida is home to many baseball players. The dollar is only taxed once there by the Feds. The players complained about playing in Canada. The PA will not be complaining about playing in the Sunshine State.
The most likely scenario is that MLB will get more involved in finding a home for the Marlins in a part of South Florida that has the kind of population demographics that will sustain the club better than Miami.
Buzz at the Winter meetings off the record is consistent. The sentiment is that the Marlins should try to work out their problems and stay in the South Florida market, if not in Dade than in Broward or Palm Beach.
Step Two: Aim Gun At Foot. Pull Trigger.
Rather than looking in the national yellow pages for Stadium rentals, the Marlins may need to look in the mirror.
True, the Marlins payroll is not being fully supported by the paltry attendance numbers. Selling off player contracts though reaffirms a screw-the-community viewpoint that fans take when their favorite players are shipped off and replaced by an entire lot of unknowns. Granted, many of these players, like Hanley Ramirez, may prove to be as good if not better than the guys they're replacing. It cannot have escaped the Marlins’ management that the community has a large sensitivity to Huizenga-ball.
That sensitivity has been magnified by the club’s public schedule. In the Spring of 2005, an autograph signing event up in Jupiter was called off after Marlins Skipper Jack McKeon sent players home early from practice on a day that 2,500 fans were scheduled to show up. The fans were turned away, and the airwaves of sports talk radio from Jupiter to Miami were filled with angry phone calls from indignant fans.
For the Marlins to succeed anywhere, some of their community relations habits will have to improve. The team fields championship clubs, that, according to their math, should be enough to command less Rodney Dangerfield-like respect. It’s not the World Series rings that make the daily payroll. It’s the long home season that the Marlins have to deliver. Both the Expos and the Marlins have fallen under repeated criticism in that department.
Where will the Marlins go? Without better community interaction, no matter where they land, the Talking Heads may have the Fleeing Fish theme song: The Road to Nowhere.
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